Pattern recognition across stages.
You can't fake the scars.
A great CTO has been at multiple companies, at multiple stages, in multiple industries — and stayed long enough at each to actually see the consequences of their decisions. That experience compounds into pattern recognition: knowing what a five-person team needs versus a fifty-person one, when to over-engineer and when not to, what scales linearly and what scales as the square.
You can't fake this. Reading about it isn't the same as having watched a system you architected fall over at 10× scale and learned why. The decisions that look obvious in retrospect are rarely obvious in the moment, and the only way to know which is which is to have made enough of them.